In the next 30 years, robots will occupy half of the jobs.
In the next 30 years, robots will occupy half of the jobs. Two very important indicators concerning the future of the labor market recently stirred the public: - only 85 people control the same amount of money as the poorest part of the world; - 47% of all the work in the world in the next twenty years will be able to perform robots.
In combination, these two factors predict the imminent onset of an anti-utopia. As more and more automatic equipment will be able to meet the needs of corporations, more and more workers will be replaced by robots - this will allow companies to cut costs and increase profits. First it will affect the service and production sector, and the next wave of automation will deprive the work of accountants, call center specialists and real estate agents.
So say the research data, conducted in 2013 by the University of Oxford. The researchers tried to find out what kinds of jobs can be automated, and were themselves amazed by the result. Creative professions and occupations requiring high qualifications turned out to be the most safe - but everything related to manual labor is in the risk zone and will soon be automated. Machine work, typing, even retailing - all these specialties will disappear. And, as always happened in history, the elite will reap the rewards. The Economist publication explains: "The prosperity that was freed up in the digital revolution, passed mainly to the owners of capital and highly skilled workers.
Over the past three decades, the share of "working class" income has decreased globally from 64% to 59%. At the same time, the share of the income of representatives of the elite accounting for 1% of the population in America increased from 9% in the 1970s to 22% today. Unemployment in rich countries has reached an alarming level. In 2000, 65% of people of working age in the US had jobs; Although since then the population of the country has decreased, employment now among the able-bodied part of citizens is about 59%. " This trend is observed not only in the States. According to a report issued by the beginning of the World Economic Forum in Davos, "85 richest people in the world together hold a capital of 1 trillion pounds, equal to the combined capital of 3.5 billion poorest people in the world." And corporations that belong to the richest people on the planet are already developing robots that will allow them to concentrate more money in their hands.
According to the Economist article, this cycle, when new technologies replace old ones, and old trades are replaced by new ones, this time will be one-sided. In the new information economy, which replaced the old production-oriented, there simply will not be a need for so many unskilled labor: last year, Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook together were estimated at $ 1 trillion, but in these companies in aggregate only works 150,000 people.
All these points lead to disappointing conclusions: in the future global, technologically advanced and overloaded inequality world, we run the risk of becoming cyber-peasants caring for the lawn of the wealthy feudal lords. Analysts predict the emergence of new fighters against the ruling class, and it's easy to understand why: that 99% of future revenues from emerging technologies are not in the hands of a handful of people, we will need political measures to adapt to the new mechanized world. Radical redistribution of income is already on the way: for example, in Switzerland and Germany have already thought about the introduction of the "minimum guaranteed income" provided by the state. Mankind already owns the agrarian, energy and household technologies necessary to revise the global scheme of income distribution in order to make them more even.
So when the rich and their robots take on the devastation of the world labor markets, social transformations will prove to be much more important than any technological achievements.
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Project management Grigoriy Sokolov