Law S curve - shaped (logistic) systems development
Law S curve - shaped (logistic) systems development This is an amazing law, which, like a drop of water reflects all the dialectical laws. He was instrumental, for it is possible to conduct diagnostics of systems. In XIX century the century were established some general laws of development of various biological systems: the growth of colonies of bacteria, insect populations, the weight of the developing fetus, etc. versus time. The curves of growth were similar in the first place, the fact that each of them could quite clearly be divided into three successive stages: slow increase, fast avalanche growth and stabilization (sometimes down) the number or other characteristics. In the 20-ies. The twentieth century has been proven that similar steps are in their development and various technical systems.
Curves built in the coordinate axes, where the vertical delayed numerical value of one of the main characteristics of the system (the speed of the airplane, power for power generator), and the horizontal - the "age" of the system or the cost of its development was received (in appearance curve) name S -shaped. The publications of the curves have been given for vehicles, tractors, aircraft, paper machines, etc. Attempts were made to the mathematical description of analysis curves (curves Gompetsa, Pearl, logistics, etc.), but we must remember that such krivve - certain idealization. The real technical system whose parameters are taken into account in the construction of curves, designed and operated in different conditions, so the data are often inaccurate. These curves are rather an illustration of the qualitative development of technical systems and therefore their analysis gives the most interesting results.